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WeatherEdge Blog

Guides and data notes for weather event-market research.

Learn how Kalshi daily-high temperature markets work, how NWS data settles them, and how to read model probabilities.

Featured guideGuideKalshi

The New User's Guide: Every Number on the WeatherEdge Dashboard, Explained

A screen-by-screen walkthrough for your first week — what each tile means, which number to actually trade off, how settlement rounding works, and the three mistakes new users make.

August 31, 2026·7 min read
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More guides

AnnouncementProductRelease

WeatherEdge 2.0: One Plan, Fifteen Cities, an Honest Scorecard

The biggest release since launch: one paid plan behind a full 7-day trial, six new markets including Denver and Phoenix, and a scorecard that stopped grading itself on a call you couldn't trade.

Aug 20, 2026·6 min read
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KalshiSettlement

Kalshi Now Settles on 'The Weather Company.' The Real Source Didn't Change.

As of August 14, 2026, Kalshi's daily temperature markets settle via The Weather Company instead of the NWS directly. But The Weather Company's own underlying source is the NWS Climate Report — the same number as always. Here's what it means for your trades.

Aug 17, 2026·4 min read
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AnnouncementAPIGuide

Introducing the WeatherEdge API: A Forecast That Ships Its Own Error Bars

Our daily-high model for nine US cities as a JSON API. Every response carries the model's uncertainty, and the history endpoint lets you grade our past calls.

Aug 14, 2026·7 min read
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GuideKalshiTrading

Two Very Different Trading Windows in One Day: How to Use WeatherEdge

A daily-high market is not one trade — it's two, with opposite risk profiles. How to read the model high, the confidence level, and the settlement indicator, and decide for yourself which window you're in.

Aug 3, 2026·6 min read
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CommunityAnnouncement

Introducing the Prilo WeatherEdge Discord

A community for people who follow Kalshi daily-high temperature markets — with the model's daily reads, settlement tracking, peak-lock movers, and published calibration, all in one room.

Jul 22, 2026·2 min read
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ModelingDataKalshi

Do One-Minute Observations (OMO) Give You an Edge? We Backtested a Year.

One-minute obs (OMO) promise a faster read on the daily high. Across a year of data, faster and finer didn't win — fusing feeds into a calibrated probability did.

Jul 7, 2026·5 min read
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KalshiAnalysis

Houston Said 93. The Bay Breeze Said 92.

Everyone — the forecast, the market, the morning heat — pointed Houston Hobby at 93°F. Our daily-high call sat at 92 all day and never blinked. Here's the hour-by-hour.

Jun 25, 2026·3 min read
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KalshiAnalysis

Miami's 95° Tease: Why the Daily High Keeps Stopping Just Short

Two June days, two flirtations with 95°F at Miami — and the afternoon sea breeze capped both. A trader-friendly look at the KMIA daily-high pattern.

Jun 19, 2026·4 min read
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ModelingForecastingKalshi

When Daily-High Temperature Models Firm Up During the Day

A daily-high forecast sharpens as observations arrive. Here's why it stabilizes in the afternoon, with per-station timing from KMIA to KMDW.

Jun 15, 2026·7 min read
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KalshiAnalysis

It's All About Conversions: Why Chicago Midway Settled 88°F When the CLI Said 87°F

On June 9, 2026, KXHIGHCHI settled 88°F while the CLI showed 87°F. Two traps — a preliminary report and whole-°C rounding — explain the whiplash.

Jun 10, 2026·4 min read
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KalshiGuide

Kalshi Temperature Markets Explained: How Daily High Markets Work

Complete guide to Kalshi's daily-high temperature markets — how brackets work, how prices form, settlement rules, and what moves prices intraday.

May 12, 2026·7 min read
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ModelingGuideForecasting

How to Predict Daily High Temperatures: A Practical Guide

Combining climatology, NWS forecasts, and observations to predict tomorrow's high temperature. Includes math, examples, and common pitfalls.

Apr 14, 2026·6 min read
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NWS DataForecasting

How Accurate Are NWS Daily High Temperature Forecasts? A 5-Year Analysis

Real RMSE and bias numbers for NWS daily-high forecasts at Miami, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago — based on 5 years of historical data.

Mar 10, 2026·5 min read
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