WeatherEdge Blog

Guides and data notes for weather event-market research.

Learn how Kalshi daily-high temperature markets work, how NWS data settles them, and how to read model probabilities.

Introducing the Prilo WeatherEdge Discord

A community for people who follow Kalshi daily-high temperature markets — with the model's daily reads, settlement tracking, peak-lock movers, and published calibration, all in one room.

July 22, 2026·2 min read

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More guides

ModelingDataKalshi

Do One-Minute Observations (OMO) Give You an Edge? We Backtested a Year.

One-minute obs (OMO) promise a faster read on the daily high. Across a year of data, faster and finer didn't win — fusing feeds into a calibrated probability did.

Jul 7, 2026·5 min read

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KalshiAnalysis

Houston Said 93. The Bay Breeze Said 92.

Everyone — the forecast, the market, the morning heat — pointed Houston Hobby at 93°F. Our daily-high call sat at 92 all day and never blinked. Here's the hour-by-hour.

Jun 25, 2026·3 min read

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KalshiAnalysis

Miami's 95° Tease: Why the Daily High Keeps Stopping Just Short

Two June days, two flirtations with 95°F at Miami — and the afternoon sea breeze capped both. A trader-friendly look at the KMIA daily-high pattern.

Jun 19, 2026·4 min read

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ModelingForecastingKalshi

When Daily-High Temperature Models Firm Up During the Day

A daily-high forecast sharpens as observations arrive. Here's why it stabilizes in the afternoon, with per-station timing from KMIA to KMDW.

Jun 15, 2026·7 min read

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KalshiAnalysis

It's All About Conversions: Why Chicago Midway Settled 88°F When the CLI Said 87°F

On June 9, 2026, KXHIGHCHI settled 88°F while the CLI showed 87°F. Two traps — a preliminary report and whole-°C rounding — explain the whiplash.

Jun 10, 2026·4 min read

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KalshiGuide

Kalshi Temperature Markets Explained: How Daily High Markets Work

Complete guide to Kalshi's daily-high temperature markets — how brackets work, how prices form, settlement rules, and what moves prices intraday.

May 12, 2026·7 min read

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ModelingGuideForecasting

How to Predict Daily High Temperatures: A Practical Guide

Combining climatology, NWS forecasts, and observations to predict tomorrow's high temperature. Includes math, examples, and common pitfalls.

Apr 14, 2026·6 min read

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NWS DataForecasting

How Accurate Are NWS Daily High Temperature Forecasts? A 5-Year Analysis

Real RMSE and bias numbers for NWS daily-high forecasts at Miami, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago — based on 5 years of historical data.

Mar 10, 2026·5 min read

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Live data

See today’s model vs. the market

Live NWS observations, daily-high model scenarios, and the model’s probabilities beside the market — across every supported station, updated all day.

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