WeatherEdge Blog

Guides and data notes for weather event-market research.

Learn how daily-high markets work, how NWS data is used, and how model probabilities should be interpreted.

It's All About Conversions: Why Chicago Midway Settled 88°F When the CLI Said 87°F

On June 9, 2026, KXHIGHCHI settled 88°F while the afternoon CLI report showed 87°F. Two stacking traps — a preliminary report and whole-°C rounding — explain the whiplash.

June 9, 2026·4 min read

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More guides

KalshiGuide

Kalshi Temperature Markets Explained: How Daily High Markets Work

Complete guide to Kalshi's daily high temperature prediction markets — how brackets work, how prices form, settlement rules, and what moves prices during the day.

May 11, 2026·7 min read

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ModelingGuideForecasting

How to Predict Daily High Temperatures: A Practical Guide

Combining climatology, NWS forecasts, and observations to predict tomorrow's high temperature. Includes math, examples, and common pitfalls.

Apr 13, 2026·6 min read

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NWS DataForecasting

How Accurate Are NWS Daily High Temperature Forecasts? A 5-Year Analysis

Real RMSE and bias numbers for National Weather Service daily high forecasts at Miami, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago — based on 5 years of historical data.

Mar 9, 2026·5 min read

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