Kalshi Now Settles on 'The Weather Company.' The Real Source Didn't Change.

On Friday, August 14th, Kalshi changed how its daily temperature markets settle. The official notice:

Effective Friday, August 14th, daily temperature markets will transition their settlement source from the National Weather Service (NWS) to The Weather Company. The Weather Company utilizes NWS as its primary underlying source, and official settlement data will be accessible at weather.com/kalshi.

Read that quickly and it sounds like the ground shifted under your feet — settlement is "transitioning away" from the NWS. Read it carefully and you'll catch the line that actually matters: "The Weather Company utilizes NWS as its primary underlying source."

So here's the honest answer to the question every trader is asking — did the source really change, and is my read still good? The page changed. The number didn't.

What actually changed (and what didn't)

Kalshi already told you where the number comes from — it's right there in the notice: its primary underlying source is the NWS. And the settlement terms spell out exactly which NWS product it is:

Source: NWS/NOAA official Daily Climate Report (CLI),
with WS Form F-6 (CF6) as backup.

There it is. The settlement value is still the NWS Daily Climate Report — the exact same CLI that has always settled these markets. The Weather Company is a relay on top of it, not a new measurement. The official daily high is the daily high in the NWS climate report, same as it's always been.

So the chain didn't move: your market settles on the NWS Daily Climate Report → the official max temperature for the station's climate day. A new company's name sits in front of it now. The number behind that name is unchanged.

The one genuine rule tweak — and it's a clarity win

There is one real change worth knowing, and it works in your favor. The new settlement terms spell it out:

Values reflect the first official value published after the daily cutoff and are not restated on later NWS revision.

Translation: the first final climate report after midnight locks the settlement. If the NWS later revises that number, Kalshi doesn't re-settle. That removes an old, nagging edge case — "could a late NWS correction flip a market I already traded?" Now the answer is a clean no. First official value, done.

(If you've read our Chicago Midway 88-not-87 breakdown, note this is different: the preliminary afternoon report is still not the settlement. The first final report is. That distinction hasn't changed.)

Where we stand

Here's the part we'll say plainly, without dressing it up: this change requires zero adaptation on our end, because we've been modeling the NWS Climate Report the entire time. The number our forecasts target — and the number we grade ourselves against every night — is the CLI. That's the same value weather.com now shows. We didn't get lucky; we built on the source of truth, and Kalshi just made that source easier to look up.

We're not going to tell you the model got smarter this week. It didn't. The settlement number is the same one we've always forecast — and the same one we grade ourselves against every night. Your edge, and our read, are exactly where they were.

The trader's read

The source of truth didn't move — only the name in front of it did. Same NWS Daily Climate Report, with one less way for a late revision to surprise you. If your edge was in reading the daily high before it lands, it's still exactly there. Don't let a rebrand talk you out of a strategy that was built on the real number all along.