The New User's Guide: Every Number on the WeatherEdge Dashboard, Explained

This guide exists because a member said the learning curve was steep, and he was right. Everything below is on the dashboard already — this just puts it in the order you'd meet it.

If you read one section, make it "The settlement rule everything depends on." That single idea explains more losing tickets than anything else on this page.

The one thing the site is trying to answer

Kalshi's daily-high markets settle on one number: the maximum temperature in the NWS Climate Report (CLI) for that station, that day, in whole °F.

Every tile here is answering some part of one question: what will that number be, and how sure can we be right now?

We are not a signal service. We don't tell you what to buy. We put the model's read, its confidence, and how settled the day is on one screen — you make the call.

Step 1: pick your station

Top of the page. Fifteen cities, each its own market with its own personality — Miami's sea breeze caps afternoons; Seattle peaks late; Central Park is hourly-only and coarser than the rest.

Two things worth doing on day one:

• Set the station you actually trade so the board opens on it.
• Tap "Ranking" in the Today's Snapshot header. It ranks today's cities from the steadiest read to the most volatile. Read the label carefully: it ranks where our own call is trustworthy, not where the money is. It is not a claim the market is mispriced.

Step 2: the four tiles

This is the core of the screen. Left to right, they go from what was forecast to what we think will settle.

NWS FORECAST HIGH

The National Weather Service's own forecast high, with its issue time. This is the baseline everyone — including the market — starts from.

Underneath you'll sometimes see CLI High with an "as of" time. That's the official climate report so far today. Two traps here, and they cost real money:

• A preliminary CLI ("valid as of 4 PM") only covers the day through that hour. The high can still climb.
• Only the final CLI settles the market.

OBSERVED NOW

The current temperature, its timestamp, and the trend. Two badges matter:

• precise vs rounded — see the settlement section below.
• settles — the whole °F this reading would settle at. When the reading is rounded you'll see a split like 78° 33% · 79° 56% · 80° 11%, because a rounded reading is a range, not a value.

PEAK SO FAR

The highest reading so far today, and roughly when it happened.

• ⚠ 91/92° next to the number means the peak is still a coarse whole-°C reading and could settle at either integer. Tap it for the split and for when the next precise value posts.
• "Will it count?" is our confidence that this peak survives to the final CLI — not a forecast that it won't be topped. Those are different questions.
• EARLY PEAK means the high happened before 6 AM. It looks like a bug and isn't; some days genuinely peak overnight.

MODEL HIGH

Our call. The big number, plus:

• → 92° — what it rounds to at settlement. Tap it for the arithmetic.
• HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW — how sharp the distribution is. LOW means the day is genuinely uncertain, not that the model is broken.
• Range — the ±1σ band. A wide band early in the day is honest, not a defect.
• Forecast track / Peak developing — whether the number is still forecast-led or has handed over to the realised peak.

The settlement rule everything depends on

Kalshi settles on whole °F, rounded half-up, once, at the end. So 91.5 → 92 and 91.4 → 91. The .5 is the entire game.

Now the part that catches everyone:

The 5-minute ASOS feed publishes whole degrees Celsius.

So a reading you see as "91" might be 33°C — and 33°C spans 90.5–92.3°F. That single displayed number is a bin covering two possible settlements, not a value. Staring at more 5-minute readings won't narrow it; they'll all agree and all be equally coarse.

What actually resolves it, in order:

1. The hourly T-group — the precise reading in the METAR remarks, to a tenth of a degree. Tagged precise in the Raw readings table; rounded ones carry a ~. One precise reading beats a hundred coarse ones.
2. The 6-hour max group — posts at 05:53 / 11:53 / 17:53 / 23:53 UTC and carries the precise high for its whole window, including sub-hourly spikes the hourly readings miss.
3. The final CLI — the last word.

This is why a peak can sit unresolved for hours: the reading exists, the precise version of it doesn't yet.

Step 3: the chart and the raw readings

The chart overlays observations on the NWS hourly forecast, with the peak marked. Hover any point for the detail; drag to zoom.

The Raw readings table below is where you check the site's work. Each row shows the temperature, the raw °C, whether it was precise or rounded, and what it settles at. When a number looks wrong, this is where you look first.

Step 4: the Kalshi brackets

Columns read left to right as Range · Status · Model YES% · YES Ask · Model NO% · NO Ask. Model columns are probabilities; asks are the cents you'd actually pay.

Status is the most useful column and the least obvious:

Status	Means
Active	current temperature is inside this range
Next up	above the current temperature — still reachable
Passed?	our live obs are above it, but the official record hasn't confirmed it
Passed	the official peak has cleared it; YES can't win
Settled	market resolved

The gap between Passed? and Passed is deliberate. Live observations aren't settlement-grade — a spike or a rounding artefact can put a bracket "past" that the CLI later certifies lower. We keep it visible until the official record agrees.

You'll also see a confidence pill for the day. Treat it as a read on how trustworthy our own call is right now, not a trade recommendation.

Step 5: demo trades

My Demo Trades is paper money — a real ledger, no risk. Use it for the first week. It's the cheapest way to find out whether you actually understand the settlement rules, and a wrong answer costs nothing.

Where to check our work

The Accuracy page grades every prediction against the CLI that settled the market, split into the two windows that matter: the dawn call, and midday. It also shows station character — bust rate and how often the obvious bracket wins — which tells you what kind of market you're in before you trade it.

The three mistakes new users make

1. Trading the decimal instead of the rounding. 73.9 is 74. If a bracket's cap is below the precise value, it's gone — no amount of afternoon cooling brings it back.
2. Treating a rounded reading as a fact. A whole-°C reading is a range. When you see ⚠ 91/92°, that's a coin flip with a lean, not a number.
3. Reading the morning call as a settled answer. Early in the day the model is forecast-led and the brackets are wide, by design. That's a different trade from the afternoon, when most of the day is already realised — see Two Very Different Trading Windows.

If something looks wrong, say so

The two best bug reports we've had this month both came from members asking why a number looked off. One became a feature; the other found a bug that had been mislabelling our own results for a month.

Ask in Discord. There is no question too basic, and the person asking it is rarely the only one wondering.

Nothing here is financial advice. Markets carry real risk — trade your own account and size responsibly.